Emissions Gap Report 2025
Off target
Ten years after Paris, the world has bent the curve of projected warming — but not far enough.
Chapter one
Paris made a difference
Before the Paris Agreement, the world was heading for warming of just below 4°C this century. Today the projection is just below 3°C.
Net-zero pledges now cover about 70 per cent of global emissions. The direction of travel changed. The pace did not change enough.
Global greenhouse gas emissions in 2024 — billion tonnes of CO2-equivalent, another record
Rise in emissions on the previous year
Share of global emissions now covered by net-zero pledges
01
Still rising
Global greenhouse gas emissions reached 57.7 GtCO2e (billion tonnes of CO2-equivalent) in 2024, up 2.3 per cent on the year before. It is another record, on a curve that has climbed almost without pause since 1990.
Source: UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025
02
Who emits
The largest emitters shape the total. Their trends since 1990, and their latest year-on-year changes, decide whether the global line flattens or keeps climbing.
Source: UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025
03
The new plans
Countries submitted new NDCs — national climate plans — for 2035. Taken together, they barely narrow the gap between where emissions are heading and where they need to be.
Source: UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025
04
Each scenario
Peak warming depends on which promises are kept: current policies, unconditional pledges, conditional pledges, or pledges plus net zero. Only the most ambitious cases come close to the Paris range.
Source: UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025
Under current policies, how much warming is the world heading for this century?
2.8°C Projected warming this century under current policies
Projected warming this century under current policies
Ten years of climate policy have pulled the projection down from just below 4°C to just below 3°C. Current policies still leave the world at about 2.8°C — far outside the range the Paris Agreement set. Source: UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025.
Every fraction of a degree matters, because the poorest and most vulnerable are hit hardest.
UNEP, Emissions Gap Report 2025
Limiting warming to 1.5°C is still technically possible
Closing the gap means stronger national climate plans and faster delivery of the pledges already made — read what UNEP says it takes.
Read the full report